Washington Dairygrams - July 2011


As printed in our July 2011 issue...

COOPERATIVES WORKING TOGETHER will be continued in 2012 and 2013 pending enrollment of at least 70 percent of U.S. milk. Current sign-up is 68 percent. Export program continues using reserves.

CLASS III PRICE for 2011 expected to average between $17.40 and $17.80 ($16.65 in 2010) and between $16 and $17 in 2012, says USDA. Milk output in 2012 is forecast up 1.5 percent to 198.5 billion.

PRESENTATIONS ON FFTF (Foundation for the Future) with discussion planned. (Locations and dates on page 435). Some groups now backing a market-cow bonus program. Others want to keep MILC.

“DAIRY” EARNS PROMINENT PLACE among USDA’s new MyPlate guidelines with three servings recommended. No mention of beef.

SENATE VOTED (73-27) on amendment to repeal 45-cent-a-gallon ethanol blenders tax credit and 54-cent import tariff. But measure part of bill that was far from passage. Ethanol mandate still in place.

U.S. COW HERD was 9.2 million head in May, largest since June 2009. There were 13,000 more cows than in April and 81,000 more than in May 2010. Still, 2011 dairy cow slaughter up 86,000 head or 7 percent over 2010. U.S. May milk output was up 1.3 percent over 2010.

CALIFORNIA WAS UP 3.7 percent in milk during May. Wisconsin was down 1.8 percent. Idaho was up 5.4 percent with 18,000 more cows, and New York was down 1.4. Texas was up 8.8 percent in milk.

FLUID MILK SALES were down 2.3 percent in April and were down 1.3 year to date. Organic milk accounted for 3.7 percent of sales.

DAIRY PRODUCT EXPORTS for 2011 through April up 45 percent to nearly $1.5 billion. Biggest gains in milk powders, butterfat products, and cheese. Big growth in South Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia.

BRIEFLY: Class III futures for July through December averaged $18.31 at closing. May Class III price was $16.52 per hundredweight, down 35 cents from April but $3.14 above a year ago. Class IV price for May rose 51 cents to $20.29 so butter-powder values setting Class I mover, which is $21.03 for July, up 71 cents and highest since November 2007. USDA forecasts corn between $6 and $7 a bushel next year with soybean meal between $375 and $405 a ton. $8.25 was May’s income over feed cost from NASS monthly numbers. Was down 74 cents from April. May Milk Feed Price Ratio was 1.74. Flavored milks nixed from lunch rooms in Los Angeles schools. Students sickened by raw milk brought to school event in Wisconsin. Using E-Verify on new hires would be mandatory under bill introduced in Congress.

In Your August 10, 2011 Issue

AMERICAN AGRICULTURE IN FOR MAJOR CHANGES. The only constant is volatility. The swings will be too much for some to handle. Being prepared provides potential for substantial margins.

GET AHEAD OF KETOSIS. There’s now a cheaper, faster blood test. Use it to check problem cows or track how well fresh cows are doing.

THINGS YOUR DAD NEVER TOLD YOU . . . ABOUT MANURE. Some of his advice on fertilizing still stands; some needs updating

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