USDA bumps up milk price forecast a bit

Hoard's Dairyman: 

USDA bumps up milk price forecast a bit

Date: 
Thu, 02/11/2010

Cheese and butter price forecasts for 2010 are little changed from last month in USDA's World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates. But the Class III price estimate for 2010 was raised about a dime from last month due to higher forecast whey prices. The forecast for the Class III midpoint was $15.25 ($14.90 to $15.60) compared to $15.15 ($14.75 to $15.55) a month earlier. However, the Class IV price forecast was lowered reflecting weaker nonfat dry milk prices.

The all milk price is forecast at between $16.20 and $16.90 for 2010 (midpoint $16.55) compared to a midpoint of $16.60 in the January estimate.

The milk production forecasts for 2010 were raised by half a billion pounds to 188.9 billion, up from 188.4 last month. Milk production was forecast higher for 2010 based on the higher-than-expected January 1 dairy replacement heifer estimate. Herds are not expected to decline as rapidly as forecast last month, boosting milk production.

Dairy exports on a skim-solids basis for 2010 are raised, reflecting higher sales of cheese and nonfat dry milk. Import forecasts are lowered for 2010. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks are estimated higher for 2009 and stocks for 2010 are raised in the face of higher production.

For a pdf, of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates click here.